I'm sure not everyone pays close attention to the stock market and the crypto markets at the same time, but it's interesting for me to draw some parallels between the two. Recently however, I've come to the conclusion that most of the ideas I had about their correlation were completely off, and possibly comically so.

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Slay the Dragon

We all think, and understandably so, that cryptos are here to destroy the legacy system. There are plenty of interviews where the leaders of thought express this very sentiment, and describe the possible scenarios that will play out in the coming years.

The first time I remember feeling optimistic about the future of Bitcoin and by proxy cryptos in general, was when I saw Max Keiser describe what he believed is the biggest reason why gold has never taken off, in complete opposition of logic mind you. The video, which I very much recommend presents brilliantly how both communities could and maybe should be working together.

I realize not all people understand short selling, or naked short selling for that matter. But, it might be enough to understand that the price of gold has been illegally kept down by the powers to be. This is to say that the end goal has always been to prop up FIAT, and so far it's been very successful.

This particular dynamic would not be applicable on a system that does not allow for such things, an immutable ledger that simply cannot be altered or hacked. The real dragon slayer, so to speak.

Exit FIAT for Cryptos?

Yes, that was the idea, that is the idea, and what we all wanted to see. But, I'm beginning to wonder if when we will be ready for such a move. This is to say that it seems to be the case that right now, as the stock market is beginning it's bust cycle, the reaction of the investors was not the one that I would have expected it to be.

At least at the time that I'm writing this, the money leaving the stocks is not entering the cryptomarkets, or at least not in a visible way. Yes, there is a possibility that it's happening through OTC markets and I can't fully discard it, but I know there is a giant chunk of retail investors participating of the legacy system, that are not currently moving our way.

Will they eventually come to cryptos? I'm sure they will, but that might be years away, and I don't think I'm exaggerating. Until investing in cryptocurrencies is as easy as using Ameritrade or Robinhood for that matter, then it just might not happen.

Before you correct me on this matter, before you point out that Robinhood does have BTC, let me preemptively say that I don't understand the business model there, and that the inability to actually have a wallet, a BTC address to send and receive to and from, makes the whole thing very artificial. I mean, one thing that is necessary for an exchange to affect the market is to be conducive to arbitrage, and that is completely nonexistent.

The harder we fall, the faster we recover

I honestly don't know if the bust cycle is complete, but I do know one thing. It could go lower, it most definitely could, and maybe, just maybe that's what we need to start our way to recovery. Before you pitchfork against me, think about how you feel at this very moment putting some fiat into the system.

The way this works out is quite simple: When the prices look stupid, stupid cheap and everyone just can't help but to jump in, the bleed out will stop - Now, when will that be? 2500? 1500? Who truly knows? But if there is one thing we can't deny is that we are witnessing capitulation right now, the true meaning of capitulation.

I think I will remember this December for years to come, decades possibly... Human psychology in full display, and all the numbers to adorn it all.